Beijing on April 26th news, "New York Times" online edition recently wrote that, considering the huge scale and growth Chinese e-commerce market, Alibaba and higher market share, Alibaba is expected to become the future of listed companies Chinese under a market capitalization of $100 billion.
below is an overview of the article:
Alibaba can become China’s next $100 billion market capitalization of listed companies?
, a Hangzhou based e-commerce giant, has refused to disclose the time to market. But sooner or later, Alibaba founder Ma Yun (micro-blog) need to provide investors with some way out, and IPO is the most likely solution. Now the question is not whether the Alibaba will be listed, but should be how to give the company valuation.
Alibaba’s main business is the sale of goods. Tmall mall is mainly for brands such as Nike and Unilever and other stores, while Taobao is mainly focused on C2C transactions. In view of this, and the model of Alibaba is most close to the American company should be the Amazon and eBay., but unfortunately, the Alibaba and the Amazon or eBay mode is not entirely consistent with the Amazon is different, the Alibaba does not hold inventory or warehouse management; and eBay is different, the vast majority of Alibaba revenue from advertising, and non charging users.
at the same time, the scope of services provided by Alibaba is still expanding, making it harder for investors to evaluate. The Alibaba not only occupy most of the e-commerce market Chinese amounted to $204 billion last year, the share of mobile operating system, but also has business, provide trade financing to suppliers, and even started offering loans to consumers. Chief strategy officer said the Alibaba, the company’s goal is to become "the largest data sharing platform in the world".
fortunately, we can use two key figures to estimate. First, the total transaction size of goods sold by Alibaba. The other is the Alibaba’s revenue sharing from each transaction. These may be derived from advertising or transaction fees or both have two. But in the end, it represents the company’s revenue from the seller. Loans and other services may also be able to create revenue, but so far its main role is only to lock users to maintain market share.
Let us use the back of the
(back-of-envelope valuation) method to approximate the. The first question is how big the market is. Assuming that China’s e-commerce market for two consecutive years of growth of 35%, and Alibaba can maintain about the current market share of about 80%. This will allow Alibaba’s 2014 turnover of $300 billion – more than 4 times the size of the eBay market. < >